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Post by Barker on Oct 26, 2020 9:03:50 GMT -5
Some incredible statistics on early voting. This site was made by Univ of Florida professor and updated daily electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.htmlIt summarizes overall and by state voting but also links to the state sites with more details as some break the return data out by party, race and age along with whether they voted in 2016. Over 60 million people have already voted which is 40%+ of the total 2016 turnout. The good news for democracy is this election is forecast to have the highest % turnout in over a century! The concerns about mail in ballots being rejected in some key states doesn't seem to be an issue. For instance PA shows 1,461,135 returned and only 229 rejected.
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Post by MonkeyBrook on Oct 26, 2020 9:34:03 GMT -5
good convo..my dad will be fine.
Lets see what happens.
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Post by sitzmark on Oct 26, 2020 9:48:33 GMT -5
Hope you are 25. Why? Mostly joking, but if your finances/retirement funds are like the average (US) person in late 50's-60's+ it looks to be a rocky road ahead. For the lower 25% it could be brutal. Guessing 25 year timeframe to work out of the financial morass the US has built - lots of volatility.
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Post by promontoryrider on Oct 26, 2020 10:57:38 GMT -5
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Post by bob on Oct 26, 2020 11:27:37 GMT -5
my biggest worry is not the dip that the markets will take but how long said dip will last...my dad (76 years old) is going to be fucked as it everyone else in his generation. A Biden win would be devastating to oil co's and that sector. Gas prices skyrocketing will hurt the poor and lower class. The Fed will have to bend over backward to maintain a ZIRP policy or crash markets.
With taxes going up Biden would be bullish for muni markets.
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Post by bob on Oct 26, 2020 11:44:20 GMT -5
so what about the stock market/finances...is anyone else worried about the hit if Biden wins? Market is on a knife's edge either way. Overvalued. 2-4 year horizon maybe looks better with Trump. 5-20 year horizon is not good regardless. Businesses return dividends when they are profitable and stock prices rise when PE is "reasonably" valued. 30x, 40x, 50x+ is very rich by historical measures that's where many stocks are. S&P is around 35. (far short of 100+ during 2008 crash, but still) Market doing well because $Trillions .... $$ TRILLIONS$$ ... have been pumped in from "covid stimulus". Without that we'd be in a world of hurt. Chance for more stimulus - Trump. Chance for MORE stimulus - Biden. Senate flip and Biden - stimulus, stimulus, stimulus. Good for market. For real economic health companies need a strong customer base with stable earnings potential. There's that word again - earnings. Concentration of wealth and shrinking middle class threatens the engine that built the US markets/economy. The long term debt that's been created because of stimulus and other spending will get worse ... without fiscal restraint and additional revenues (taxes) potentially MUCH worse. Bad, very bad for long term which impacts forward looking profitability/PE. Tax increases to pay off long term debt - bad short term, mixed bag for the long term depending on what people and business do. If the driving motivation is to stabilize the finances of the country, everyone takes a haircut. If the greater motivation is self-interest, the US is steering into a dark place. Trump isn't making the long term debt go away - not even when the economy was hitting its highest productivity. In fact debt was outpacing the economy and then some. The National Debt is the people's debt. Currently at around $80k for every US citizen ... approaching $200k for every household. The US can't afford for interest rates to increase or service on the debt will explode, so monetary policy is holding down interest rates. Retiring/retired people can't make livable return on their savings without taking greater risk than they should because of constraints on fixed income (treasuries). Massive funnel of assets to the Market is a result. Another reason for overvaluation. If markets crash or even significantly correct, those who have a short horizon are in trouble. That means reduced spending by a very large segment of the population. Depletion of Medicare and SS funds is imminent .. even more reduced spending. Translation - dynamic downward impact on the economy and business earnings (stock prices/dividends) unless new customers are found somewhere else. It isn't a rosy picture ... or a simple Trump/Biden answer.
Most of the Trillions were conjured out of the thin air as electronic QE and sits on the fed's balance sheet:
This just inflates risk assets, and waters down our purchasing power, avoiding deflation. Japanification is the outlook for the future. It's very regressive in that the super wealthy consolidate wealth from the middle/ and lowers classes.
This is not to be confused with Stimulus from congress that we pay for with our taxes and added to the federal debt.
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Post by MonkeyBrook on Oct 26, 2020 11:59:53 GMT -5
Mostly joking, but if your finances/retirement funds are like the average (US) person in late 50's-60's+ it looks to be a rocky road ahead. For the lower 25% it could be brutal. Guessing 25 year timeframe to work out of the financial morass the US has built - lots of volatility. Anyone want to make me a wager? The Dow will drop 25-30% within 3 days of the election results being announced.
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Post by wheelie on Oct 26, 2020 12:16:43 GMT -5
Mostly joking, but if your finances/retirement funds are like the average (US) person in late 50's-60's+ it looks to be a rocky road ahead. For the lower 25% it could be brutal. Guessing 25 year timeframe to work out of the financial morass the US has built - lots of volatility. Anyone want to make me a wager? The Dow will drop 25-30% within 3 days of the election results being announced. Are you saying either way the election goes it drops or are you conceding a trump loss?
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Post by MonkeyBrook on Oct 26, 2020 12:22:02 GMT -5
I am preparing for the worst...
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Post by rippy on Oct 26, 2020 13:20:15 GMT -5
Mostly joking, but if your finances/retirement funds are like the average (US) person in late 50's-60's+ it looks to be a rocky road ahead. For the lower 25% it could be brutal. Guessing 25 year timeframe to work out of the financial morass the US has built - lots of volatility. Just wondering...I don't think Ive ever posted my personal investment strategy, which is a lot different than my overall view of the market. I'm fine. That said, I am pumping as much cash as I can into the grandkids 529 accounts.
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Post by sitzmark on Oct 26, 2020 13:25:04 GMT -5
Market is on a knife's edge either way. Overvalued. 2-4 year horizon maybe looks better with Trump. 5-20 year horizon is not good regardless. Businesses return dividends when they are profitable and stock prices rise when PE is "reasonably" valued. 30x, 40x, 50x+ is very rich by historical measures that's where many stocks are. S&P is around 35. (far short of 100+ during 2008 crash, but still) Market doing well because $Trillions .... $$ TRILLIONS$$ ... have been pumped in from "covid stimulus". Without that we'd be in a world of hurt. Chance for more stimulus - Trump. Chance for MORE stimulus - Biden. Senate flip and Biden - stimulus, stimulus, stimulus. Good for market. For real economic health companies need a strong customer base with stable earnings potential. There's that word again - earnings. Concentration of wealth and shrinking middle class threatens the engine that built the US markets/economy. The long term debt that's been created because of stimulus and other spending will get worse ... without fiscal restraint and additional revenues (taxes) potentially MUCH worse. Bad, very bad for long term which impacts forward looking profitability/PE. Tax increases to pay off long term debt - bad short term, mixed bag for the long term depending on what people and business do. If the driving motivation is to stabilize the finances of the country, everyone takes a haircut. If the greater motivation is self-interest, the US is steering into a dark place. Trump isn't making the long term debt go away - not even when the economy was hitting its highest productivity. In fact debt was outpacing the economy and then some. The National Debt is the people's debt. Currently at around $80k for every US citizen ... approaching $200k for every household. The US can't afford for interest rates to increase or service on the debt will explode, so monetary policy is holding down interest rates. Retiring/retired people can't make livable return on their savings without taking greater risk than they should because of constraints on fixed income (treasuries). Massive funnel of assets to the Market is a result. Another reason for overvaluation. If markets crash or even significantly correct, those who have a short horizon are in trouble. That means reduced spending by a very large segment of the population. Depletion of Medicare and SS funds is imminent .. even more reduced spending. Translation - dynamic downward impact on the economy and business earnings (stock prices/dividends) unless new customers are found somewhere else. It isn't a rosy picture ... or a simple Trump/Biden answer.
Most of the Trillions were conjured out of the thin air as electronic QE and sits on the fed's balance sheet:
This just inflates risk assets, and waters down our purchasing power, avoiding deflation. Japanification is the outlook for the future. It's very regressive in that the super wealthy consolidate wealth from the middle/ and lowers classes.
This is not to be confused with Stimulus from congress that we pay for with our taxes and added to the federal debt.
Not actually. The bulk of the national debt ($27T) is held by private and public entities - $20T. The true liability for the US Gov is about $125T - that's what is owed including the borrowing that has taken place from SS and other Gov (now unfunded) accounts. That money is owed to the people who contributed it to fund their retirement. The Chinese and Japanese hold a substantial portion of the $20T. This all works as long as the world believes the US Gov can actually meet the obligations. The world is beginning to question. There is a limit to what the Fed can "thin air" before all confidence is lost. When the full load of boomers are in retirement and need their money, Medicare, and federal (state) pensions come due the real demand for foo-foo money begins. Not fixing that relatively soon will convince the world that the US is a serious investment risk. In that environment the return demanded by investors for loaning the government money will be stifling on the economy. If countries (China) don't get reward for risk, they will invest in their own economies. The US Dollar will lose its place as the default "world currency" (China on mission now to make that happen) and it will get much more difficult for the US government to play the same games because we won't have the luxury of doing it in our own currency. If it gets bad enough we can tell our creditors to pound sand and become an island in the world of nations, but not exactly the stuff of good relations does that make. This is serious shit despite everyone's - especially government leaders'- proclivity to blow it off. The covid stimulus is another borrowed source of funds derived from the same "pots" as all the other borrowed funds - if not directly from tax revenues (not enough to go around) then it forces other deficit spending to seek the foo-foo money. It's all being managed as one big slush fund of debt.
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Post by MonkeyBrook on Oct 26, 2020 13:27:54 GMT -5
Mostly joking, but if your finances/retirement funds are like the average (US) person in late 50's-60's+ it looks to be a rocky road ahead. For the lower 25% it could be brutal. Guessing 25 year timeframe to work out of the financial morass the US has built - lots of volatility. Just wondering...I don't think Ive ever posted my personal investment strategy, which is a lot different than my overall view of the market. I'm fine. That said, I am pumping as much cash as I can into the grandkids 529 accounts. Cash is king (maybe even more for the next few weeks)
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Post by rippy on Oct 26, 2020 13:29:16 GMT -5
Mostly joking, but if your finances/retirement funds are like the average (US) person in late 50's-60's+ it looks to be a rocky road ahead. For the lower 25% it could be brutal. Guessing 25 year timeframe to work out of the financial morass the US has built - lots of volatility. Anyone want to make me a wager? The Dow will drop 25-30% within 3 days of the election results being announced. Buying opportunity. Funny seeing all the armageddon people. I know someone who transferred all his 401k funds into cash when the pandemic hit.....locked in his losses and hasn't got back in yet. He asked my what my strategy was. I told him...."buy low; sell high". People need to decide whether they're investors or traders. If you're an investor pick a risk profile that you're comfortable with and be patient. If you're a trader....good luck going up against the high frequency guys.
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Post by sitzmark on Oct 26, 2020 13:30:39 GMT -5
Mostly joking, but if your finances/retirement funds are like the average (US) person in late 50's-60's+ it looks to be a rocky road ahead. For the lower 25% it could be brutal. Guessing 25 year timeframe to work out of the financial morass the US has built - lots of volatility. Anyone want to make me a wager? The Dow will drop 25-30% within 3 days of the election results being announced. $50 to MASR? A little certainty to the world should help stabilize things. .... of course if it becomes a contested election....
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Post by MonkeyBrook on Oct 26, 2020 14:20:40 GMT -5
Anyone want to make me a wager? The Dow will drop 25-30% within 3 days of the election results being announced. $50 to MASR? A little certainty to the world should help stabilize things. .... of course if it becomes a contested election.... Done, we will take, DOW on close of day before Election Day and then look at closing 3 days post election results being announced...of course timing will vary on when officially announced vs when markets will react but I will take that change...30% drop. Loser donates $50 to MASR. Deal, virtual handshake.
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