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Post by sitzmark on Oct 26, 2020 14:48:58 GMT -5
$50 to MASR? A little certainty to the world should help stabilize things. .... of course if it becomes a contested election.... Done, we will take, DOW on close of day before Election Day and then look at closing 3 days post election results being announced...of course timing will vary on when officially announced vs when markets will react but I will take that change...30% drop. Loser donates $50 to MASR. Deal, virtual handshake.
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Post by Barker on Oct 26, 2020 15:13:24 GMT -5
Done, we will take, DOW on close of day before Election Day and then look at closing 3 days post election results being announced...of course timing will vary on when officially announced vs when markets will react but I will take that change...30% drop. Loser donates $50 to MASR. Deal, virtual handshake. Even after today's 650 point loss, a 30% drop would be over 8,000 points! Bush-Gore dragged out 5 weeks and DJIA only went down 3%
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Post by promontoryrider on Oct 26, 2020 15:36:59 GMT -5
Even after today's 650 point loss, a 30% drop would be over 8,000 points! Bush-Gore dragged out 5 weeks and DJIA only went down 3% Right but no Biden in that comparison.
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Post by MonkeyBrook on Oct 26, 2020 16:10:19 GMT -5
Even after today's 650 point loss, a 30% drop would be over 8,000 points! Bush-Gore dragged out 5 weeks and DJIA only went down 3% Its a donation to MASR, and aggressive downside prediction...I would pay $50 to say I was wrong.
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Post by bob on Oct 26, 2020 16:17:09 GMT -5
Most of the Trillions were conjured out of the thin air as electronic QE and sits on the fed's balance sheet:
This just inflates risk assets, and waters down our purchasing power, avoiding deflation. Japanification is the outlook for the future. It's very regressive in that the super wealthy consolidate wealth from the middle/ and lowers classes.
This is not to be confused with Stimulus from congress that we pay for with our taxes and added to the federal debt.
Not actually. The bulk of the national debt ($27T) is held by private and public entities - $20T. The true liability for the US Gov is about $125T - that's what is owed including the borrowing that has taken place from SS and other Gov (now unfunded) accounts. That money is owed to the people who contributed it to fund their retirement. The Chinese and Japanese hold a substantial portion of the $20T. This all works as long as the world believes the US Gov can actually meet the obligations. The world is beginning to question. There is a limit to what the Fed can "thin air" before all confidence is lost. When the full load of boomers are in retirement and need their money, Medicare, and federal (state) pensions come due the real demand for foo-foo money begins. Not fixing that relatively soon will convince the world that the US is a serious investment risk. In that environment the return demanded by investors for loaning the government money will be stifling on the economy. If countries (China) don't get reward for risk, they will invest in their own economies. The US Dollar will lose its place as the default "world currency" (China on mission now to make that happen) and it will get much more difficult for the US government to play the same games because we won't have the luxury of doing it in our own currency. If it gets bad enough we can tell our creditors to pound sand and become an island in the world of nations, but not exactly the stuff of good relations does that make. This is serious shit despite everyone's - especially government leaders'- proclivity to blow it off. The covid stimulus is another borrowed source of funds derived from the same "pots" as all the other borrowed funds - if not directly from tax revenues (not enough to go around) then it forces other deficit spending to seek the foo-foo money. It's all being managed as one big slush fund of debt. Yes actually: stimulus from congress signed by the president is deficit spending that we pay for with our taxes and added to the federal debt.
Much worse for the taxpayers than QE.
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Post by sitzmark on Oct 26, 2020 17:02:48 GMT -5
Not actually. The bulk of the national debt ($27T) is held by private and public entities - $20T. The true liability for the US Gov is about $125T - that's what is owed including the borrowing that has taken place from SS and other Gov (now unfunded) accounts. That money is owed to the people who contributed it to fund their retirement. The Chinese and Japanese hold a substantial portion of the $20T. This all works as long as the world believes the US Gov can actually meet the obligations. The world is beginning to question. There is a limit to what the Fed can "thin air" before all confidence is lost. When the full load of boomers are in retirement and need their money, Medicare, and federal (state) pensions come due the real demand for foo-foo money begins. Not fixing that relatively soon will convince the world that the US is a serious investment risk. In that environment the return demanded by investors for loaning the government money will be stifling on the economy. If countries (China) don't get reward for risk, they will invest in their own economies. The US Dollar will lose its place as the default "world currency" (China on mission now to make that happen) and it will get much more difficult for the US government to play the same games because we won't have the luxury of doing it in our own currency. If it gets bad enough we can tell our creditors to pound sand and become an island in the world of nations, but not exactly the stuff of good relations does that make. This is serious shit despite everyone's - especially government leaders'- proclivity to blow it off. The covid stimulus is another borrowed source of funds derived from the same "pots" as all the other borrowed funds - if not directly from tax revenues (not enough to go around) then it forces other deficit spending to seek the foo-foo money. It's all being managed as one big slush fund of debt. Yes actually: stimulus from congress signed by the president is deficit spending that we pay for with our taxes and added to the federal debt.
Much worse for the taxpayers than QE.
Think we're arguing the same point. My point was that the trillions of covid stimulus pumped into the economy (which ultimately provided support for the Market's rebound since March) did not come from QE. Thought you were saying most of the $27T is on the fed's balance sheet. $20T is not. The cumulative effect of all the debt, regardless of its origin, is seriously destabilizing and has the potential to cause profound consequences in the future if a plan for reducing it to reasonable levels isn't implemented "soon". In the longest economic boom of the nation's history we didn't slow it from exploding, so the challenge becomes even more difficult.
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Post by promontoryrider on Oct 26, 2020 17:35:31 GMT -5
Joe bringing the country together and coughing into his hand.
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Post by Barker on Oct 26, 2020 18:05:10 GMT -5
Joe bringing the country together and coughing into his hand. posting stuff from candidate’s “war room” Twitter accounts is too easy, like low hanging fruit
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Post by promontoryrider on Oct 26, 2020 18:28:06 GMT -5
Figured a response like that; its posted in many places, other than war rooms. Guy coughs in hand....and he is going to solve CV19? Come on man?!?!? You won't see that in an elementary school, grade schoolers know better.
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Post by noturns on Oct 26, 2020 18:42:52 GMT -5
Even after today's 650 point loss, a 30% drop would be over 8,000 points! Bush-Gore dragged out 5 weeks and DJIA only went down 3% Its a donation to MASR, and aggressive downside prediction...I would pay $50 to say I was wrong. Hey MB, if you think the market is going to drop, you could always buy SDOW or SQQQ.
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Post by what is hip ? on Oct 26, 2020 18:47:55 GMT -5
chilling... Deblasio/Cuomo operate like Nazi Germany. This is your democrat party in 2020.
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Post by MonkeyBrook on Oct 26, 2020 19:26:17 GMT -5
Its a donation to MASR, and aggressive downside prediction...I would pay $50 to say I was wrong. Hey MB, if you think the market is going to drop, you could always buy SDOW or SQQQ. Yep, thanks...well aware. I have myself protected.
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Post by Barker on Oct 26, 2020 19:46:50 GMT -5
Figured a response like that; its posted in many places, other than war rooms. BFD Happens on both sides.in this case the right wing echo chamber retweets and reposts this two week old video clip on Sky, Fox, Blaze, Washington Times, etc.
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Post by promontoryrider on Oct 26, 2020 19:59:12 GMT -5
Figured a response like that; its posted in many places, other than war rooms. BFD Happens on both sides.in this case the right wing echo chamber retweets and reposts this two week old video clip on Sky, Fox, Blaze, Washington Times, etc. Hmmm, I thought it happened Saturday.
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Post by MonkeyBrook on Oct 26, 2020 21:23:29 GMT -5
Even after today's 650 point loss, a 30% drop would be over 8,000 points! Bush-Gore dragged out 5 weeks and DJIA only went down 3% Its a donation to MASR, and aggressive downside prediction...I would pay $50 to say I was wrong. Ooops just realized I typed 3 days vs 30 days...we can keep the bet but if the market drops 30% in 3 days...we have a lot bigger issues...lets just hope the election goes the other way
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